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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & PROJECTIONS


It's all about numbers. Start-ups cringe at the thought of having to develop financial statements. Most are obligated to learn the basics of what each financial statement represents, how it is used to analyze the financial condition of the company and how to create them. Eventually, they learn to use these documents as tools to measure levels of success or failure. Properly learned and monitored on a regular basis, actual financial statements can be used to compare performance with projections, and to potentially identify wasted resources, as well as factors of success.  

It is equally important to begin the projection process by overestimating expenses and underestimating sales. Decreasing expenses and increasing sales in the projections should come only with viable financial assumptions to justify your revisions.

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): Did you ever wonder how a company decides the price of its products? It all begins with determining the cost of goods sold (COGS). You have to know the cost of your products before deciding on the sale price. Manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers must determine the COGS. The following is the example of a company that sells finished goods:

Cost of Goods Sold = Beginning Inventory  +  Purchases  -  End Inventory

The formula can applied to one week, one month or a year, but must be the same for each value of the formula. The formula for a manufacturer includes raw goods and unfinished product in inventory. There is no formula for a service firm, which relies exclusively on market research of competitors and deciding a pricing strategy that allows profitability.

Breakeven Analysis: Simply stated, this formula indicates how much sales volume must be accomplished in order to cover all costs (fixed and variable), and begin generating a profit. In other words, it is the point in sales volume at which you have no profit and no loss. This is most commonly applied to a business that sells product. The following formula is applied:

Breakeven =  Fixed Costs / (Revenue – Variable Costs)

The breakeven point equals fixed costs divided by the result of revenue minus variable costs. Go to www.dinkytown.net/java/BreakEven.html to apply company information and learn your breakeven point.

Ratio Analysis: Ratio analysis is the use of a simple set of easily understood math formulas to measure your financial projections with the actual performance of other companies in your industry. Go to our Calculators page to learn some of those formulas. Go to Valuation Resources to locate sources of ratio analysis data and the SIC code for your company's industry.

Projected Profit & Loss (Income Statements): The P&L, as it is commonly called, reflects how you use your resources (assets) to generate sales. The use of the assets is reflected in the form of expenses. View the simple retail profit and loss statement below:

Income Statement  01/01/02 to 06/30/02

 

Revenue

 

Sales

$98,560

Cost of Goods Sold

 

Inventory

71,080

Gross Margin

$27,480

 

 

Expenses

 

Rent

$21,000

Utilities

900

Wages

11,500

Insurance

800

Office Supplies

900

Advertising

1,200

Taxes

300

Equipment

14,000

Other

2,000

Interest Expense

726

Depreciation Expense

500

Total Expenses

$53,826

 

 

Net Profit (Before Taxes)

($26,346)

 

Projected Cash Flow Statements: On first glance, to the layperson, income statements and cash flow statements can look so much alike. Understand the distinctions. Cash flow statements reflect the flow of cash in and out of the company. Cash in is reflected as revenue. Cash out is reflected as disbursements. On the income statement, income is reflected when the sale is consummated. It may or may not be the same time when the cash (revenue) is collected. On an income statement expenses are recorded when incurred. On the cash flow statement the disbursement is recorded when actually paying the expense. View the first six months of a simple, retail cash flow statement below:

Monthly Cash Flow 01/01/02 to 06/30/02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

Total

Cash Receipts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales

$10,000

$16,000

$16,250

$16,370

$19,990

$19,950

$98,560

Investment

15,000

 

 

 

 

 

15,000

Loan

15,000

 

 

 

 

 

15,000

Total Cash Receipts

$40,000

$16,000

$16,250

$16,370

$19,990

$19,950

$128,560

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash Disbursements

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inventory

$15,000

$10,000

$8,750

$10,000

$15,000

$12,330

$71,080

Rent

3,500

3,500

3,500

3,500

3,500

3,500

21,000

Utilities

150

150

150

150

150

150

900

Wages

1,500

2,500

2,500

3,000

1,000

1,000

11,500

Insurance

 

 

400

 

 

400

800

Office Supplies

150

150

150

150

150

150

900

Advertising

200

200

200

200

200

200

1,200

Taxes

 

 

150

 

 

150

300

Equipment

14,000

 

 

 

 

 

14,000

Principal & Interest (loan)

319

319

319

319

319

319

1,914

Other Cash Disbursements

2,000

 

 

 

 

 

2,000

Total Cash Disbursements

$36,819

$16,819

$16,119

$17,319

$20,319

$18,199

$125,594